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INTERNET USER FORECAST BY COUNTRY
An Estimate and Forecast of Internet Users in 57 Countries and 6 Regions of the World.

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Internet User Driving Forces
1.2 Wireless Internet User
1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary 5
1.1 Internet User Driving Forces 6
1.2 Wireless Internet User 7
1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users 8
2.0 Internet User Trends 11
2.1 What is an Internet User? 11
2.2 What is Included in the Internet User Forecast? 13
2.3 Internet Market Perspectives 14
2.4 Technology Impact on Internet User 16
2.5 Internet User Hardware Platforms 18
2.6 Internet User Summary Data 20
3.0 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions 22
3.1 Forecast Methodology 22
3.1.1 Ultimate Penetration Rates 24
3.1.2 Forecast Assumptions 25
3.2 Information Sources 26
3.2.1 Survey/Projection Accuracy 27
4.0 Internet Users Estimates and Forecast 29
4.1 Internet Users by Country 29
4.2 Internet Users per 1,000 People by Country 31
4.3 Weekly Internet Users by Country 32
4.4 Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users 34
4.5 Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users per Capita 36
4.6 Internet Users Frequency Perspectives. 38
4.7 Wireless Internet Users 39
4.8 Broadband Subscribers 46
5.0 Internet User Forecast Spreadsheet Details 51
5.1 Internet User Data for 53 Countries 52
5.2 Internet User Data by Regions 108
5.3 Author Bio 118
5.4 Other Research Reports by eTForecasts 118

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List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1 U.S. and Worldwide Internet User Growth 5
Figure 1.1 Internet Users by Regions 6
Table 1.2 Internet User Driving Forces 6
Table 1.3 Wireless Internet Users 7
Table 1.4 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users: 2004 8
Table 1.5 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2004 9
Table 1.6 Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015 10
Table 2.1 Internet User Categories 11
Table 2.2 Internet User Category Relationship 11
Table 2.3 Internet Usage Places 12
Table 2.4 Internet User Forecast Content 12
Table 2.5 PC Market Perspectives 13
Table 2.6 Internet Industry Perspectives 15
Table 2.7 Technology Impact of Internet Use 15
Table 2.8 Information/Internet Appliances 16
Table 2.9 Internet User Summary By Regions 18
Table 2.10 Weekly Internet User Summary By Regions 20
Table 2.11 Broadband Subscriber Summary by Region 21
Table 3.1 Ultimate Internet Penetration Factors 22
Table 3.2 Internet Market Statistics Sources 24
Table 4.1 Internet Users By Country 26
Table 4.2 Internet Users Per 1,000 People By Country 29
Table 4.3 Weekly Internet Users By Country 31
Table 4.4 Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 1995 and 2000 32
Table 4.5 Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2004 and 2005 34
Table 4.6 Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2007 and 2010 35
Table 4.7 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 1995 and 2000 35
Table 4.8 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2004 and 2005 36
Table 4.9 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2007 and 2010 37
Table 4.10 Internet User Frequency Relations 37
Table 4.11 Top 15 Countries In Internet Usage 38
Table 4.12 PC Internet versus Wireless Internet 39
Table 4.13 Wireless Internet Users by Regions 40
Table 4.14 Wireless Internet Users: Selected Countries 41
Table 4.15 Broadband Subscribers by Country 42
Table 4.16 Broadband Subscribers Per 1,000 People by Country 44
Table 5.1 Internet User Forecast Content 45
Table 5.2 Argentina 45
Table 5.3 Australia 46
Table 5.4 Austria 47
Table 5.5 Belgium 48
Table 5.6 Brazil 48
Table 5.7 Bulgaria 49
Table 5.8 Canada 50
Table 5.9 Chile 51
Table 5.10 China 52
Table 5.11 Columbia 53
Table 5.12 Czech Republic 53
Table 5.13 Denmark 54
Table 5.14 Egypt 55
Table 5.15 Finland 56
Table 5.16 France 57
Table 5.17 Germany 57
Table 5.18 Greece 58
Table 5.19 Hong Kong 59
Table 5.20 Hungary 60
Table 5.21 Iceland 61
Table 5.22 India 61
Table 5.23 Indonesia 62
Table 5.24 Ireland 63
Table 5.25 Israel 64
Table 5.26 Italy 65
Table 5.27 Japan 65
Table 5.28 Malaysia 66
Table 5.29 Mexico 67
Table 5.30 Netherlands 68
Table 5.31 New Zealand 69
Table 5.32 Norway 70
Table 5.33 Peru 70
Table 5.34 Philippines 71
Table 5.35 Poland 72
Table 5.36 Portugal 73
Table 5.37 Romania 74
Table 5.38 Russia 74
Table 5.39 Saudi Arabia 75
Table 5.40 Singapore 76
Table 5.41 Slovakia 77
Table 5.42 South Africa 78
Table 5.43 South Korea 78
Table 5.44 Spain 79
Table 5.45 Sweden 80
Table 5.46 Switzerland 81
Table 5.47 Taiwan 82
Table 5.48 Thailand 83
Table 5.49 Turkey 83
Table 5.50 Ukraine 84
Table 5.51 United Kingdom 85
Table 5.52 USA 86
Table 5.53 Uruguay 86
Table 5.54 Venezuela 88
Table 5.55 Other Countries 88
Table 5.56 Worldwide 89
Table 5.57 North America 90
Table 5.58 Western Europe 91
Table 5.59 Eastern Europe 92
Table 5.60 Asia Pacific 93
Table 5.61 South/Central America 94
Table 5.62 Middle East & Africa 96

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The Internet began as a university research project in 1969 and was funded by ARPA-a U.S. military research organization. For the next 20 years the Internet and its predecessor, the ARPANET, existed mostly in obscurity. It was primarily a network for government and academic researchers during this timeframe. The defining event of the Internet happened in 1989 when Tim Berners-Lee proposed the World Wide Web. A year later the web became a reality when the first primitive web browser was implemented. The release of the Mosaic browser in 1993 and the Netscape browser in 1994 allowed millions of PCs already in use to quickly and inexpensively get on the Internet.

At the end of 1989, there were 1.1M Internet users worldwide and about 86% were in the U.S. In the 1990s the worldwide number of Internet user grew 250-fold to over 280M for a compound annual growth rate of over 74%. At the end of 1989, the number of Internet hosts were approaching 200K and 92% were in the U.S. At the end of the decade the number of Internet hosts reached 70M.

The growth in the number of US Internet users is slowing due to the high level of penetration. The worldwide number will continue at strong growth rates due to low penetration levels in most regions. The next table summarizes the growth in US and worldwide Internet users over the last 15 years.

Table 1.1  US and Worldwide Internet User Growth
  1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010
US Internet Users (#M) 0.019 1.80 28.1 135 210 222 259
US Internet User share (%) 89.6 84.5 62.3 32.2 17.3 16.4 14.6
US Internet Users/1,000 People (#) 0.08 7.2 105 476 704 738 839
Worldwide Internet Users (#M) 0.021 2.13 45.1 420 1,081 1,362 1,781
Worldwide Internet Users/1,000 People (#) 0.004 0.40 7.91 68.8 167 206 262

At the end of 2000 the U.S. had nearly 135M Internet users. Between 1990 and 1995 the compound annual growth rate of U.S. Internet users was over 73% and slowed to 36% between 1995 and 2000 and to 9% between 2000 and 2005. From 2000 to 2010 the U.S. Internet users will grow by less than 7% per year.

The worldwide number of Internet users zoomed from 2.1M at year-end 1990 to over 44M in 1995, which is a compound annual growth of over 84%. From 1995 to 2000 the annual growth rate slowed to 56% and to 21% for 2000 to 2005.For the next five years worldwide Internet users is forecasted to grow by less than 11% per year.

The next figure shows the growth of Internet users for the main regions of the world. Six regions and the U.S. Internet user totals are listed in the bar graph. The projections show Asia Pacific became the largest region with 178M Internet users in 2001, which will grow to over 615M Internet users in 2007. Western Europe with 290M Internet users in 2007 will also top the 230M Internet users forecasted for the U.S. The Middle East/Africa region will have the lowest number of Internet users at 96M in 2007, but showing strong growth from 8M Internet users in 1999.

Figure 1.1 Internet Users by Regions

Increasing usage of wireless web devices will cause much of the Internet user growth-especially in the developing countries. In 2004 about 21% of Internet users where using wireless devices to access the Internet-up from 1.7% in 1999. A large portion of the wireless web users is currently in Japan and S. Korea. In the next five years the growth of wireless Internet users will nearly 44% of all Internet users and many of these users will be using multiple Internet access devices.

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1.1 Internet User Driving Forces

There are numerous factors that are driving the growth of the Internet. The key driving forces are summarized in the next table. The left column shows important factors that have been active recently and will continue to add growth to the Internet. The right column lists the factors that are emerging and are likely to have a strong impact in the next five years.

Table 1.2 Internet User Driving Forces
1996-2004 2005-2010
  • Email proliferation
  • Free web browser
  • Content explosion
  • Under $1K PCs (1997)
  • Intranets for business users
  • Web hosting services
  • Business-to-consumer e-commerce
  • PC purchase rebates from ISPs
  • Business-to-business e-commerce
  • Declining & fixed ISP rates
  • Under $500 PCs (2000)
  • “Free” ISP rates in international markets
  • Web-driven productivity gains
  • Internet/cyber cafes
  • Business-to-business e-commerce
  • Cable modem & DSL connections
  • DSL & broadband connections
  • Handsets with Internet access
  • Home LANs for Internet access devices
  • Wireless Internet access points
  • Internet-enabled CE devices
  • Multifunction handheld devices
  • Web content for wireless devices
  • Pre-paid Internet access cards
  • Un-metered Internet access fees
  • E-commerce in developing countries
  • M-commerce for mobile devices
  • Internet cafes in developing countries
  • $200 PC for developing countries
  • Internet entertainment content
  • $50 handset with Internet access
  • Wireless broadband (WiMax)

Low cost Internet access devices will continue to be a leading Internet user growth factor. In a year or two a $200 PC will emerge for developing countries. It is sometimes called the “Hundred Dollar Laptop” which is the estimated manufacturing cost. By 2010 such a product may be in the $150 range. Of equal importance is the $50 web-enabled handset, which is likely to appear around 2007.

“Free” ISP rates are usually not free. They are used in countries where all telephone call fees are based on usage rates. The ISP offering "free" Internet access receives a share of the per minute telephone charge from the telephone company. However, un-metered Internet rates or a fixed monthly rate for unlimited use are appearing—especially with broadband Internet connections. Un-metered rates will become increasingly important, as free ISP rates have peaked in importance.

Broadband Internet access such as cable modems and Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL) are growing rapidly and will have positive impact on the user experience. The U.S. has been slow to add broadband infrastructure and Canada, S. Korea and other countries have much higher broadband penetration than the U.S. DSL technology is the leading broadband technology in most countries because it uses the existing telephone network infrastructure.

The next generation cellular technology (3G) will be very important due to its “always-on” characteristics.  3G cellular networks will be a great improvement over current transfer rates. 3G networks have maximum data transfer rates of 384 Kbps for moving vehicles and 2 Mbps or higher for stationary handsets. However, due to multiple users sharing this bandwidth in each cell, the average bandwidth for each user will be much lower than the maximum rate.

Several other broadband technologies may also have an impact on Internet access. Wireless LANs (Wi-Fi or IEEE 802.11) use an unlicensed frequency band in the 2.5 GHz range for local wireless communication to mobile devices. The growth of wireless access points that provide broadband Internet access to mobile devices using IEEE 802.11 protocol is currently seeing exceptionally strong growth. WiMax or IEEE 802.16 is an emerging wireless technology that shows future potential for broadband connectivity. WiMax has a much larger range than Wi-Fi and may compete with 3G cellular networks.

Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices will have an increasing impact on Internet usage. An increasing number of 2.5G and 3G cell phones will have Internet access capabilities and will extend the time and place of Internet access. Web-enabled handsets will also extend the number of Internet users—especially in developing countries where fixed phones lines are limited. Web appliances and web-entertainment appliances will also extend the time and place of Internet access.

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1.2 Wireless Internet User

The wireless Internet is currently perceived as a disappointment due to earlier inflated expectations. However, the wireless Internet has lived up to expectations in Japan. S. Korea and similar success is expected in other regions, but on a slower schedule. The importance of the wireless web is shown in the next table.

Table 1.3  Wireless Internet Users
Region   2001 2004 2010
USA Internet Users (#M) 149 186 247
Wireless Internet Users (#M) 5.5 23 91
Wireless Internet User Share (%) 3.7 12.5 35.1
Worldwide Internet Users (#M) 552 941 1,781
Wireless Internet Users (#M) 79 200 779
Wireless Internet User Share (%) 14.4 21.2 43.8

The wireless Internet is making progress with the deployment of 2.5G and 3G-packet communication networks. Packet networks are always on, which eliminates the lengthy log-on procedure. Useful Internet content for the small displays of wireless devices is expanding, but much more is needed to further grow the wireless Internet user base. Potential growth will be due to millions of “dormant” or web-enabled cell phones that are only used for voice services. As the wireless Internet user experience improves, an increasing portion of the dormant web-enabled phones will become active wireless Internet devices.

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1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

The worldwide number of Internet users passed 130M in 1997, topped 551M in 2001 and will surpass 1B in 2005. Much of the growth in Internet users is taking place outside the U.S. Asia will see especially strong growth in the next five years. China will surpassed Japan and became second to the U.S. in number of Internet users in 2004. At the end of 2000 the U.S. accounted for 32.1% of total Internet users, down from 44.8% in 1998 and 55.8% in 1996. U.S. Internet user share dropped below 20% in 2004. The next table is the estimated country ranking of Internet users for year-end 2004.

Table 1.4 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users: 2004
Internet Users (#K) Year-End 2004 Share %
1. US 185,550 19.70
2. China  94,000 9.98
3. Japan 81,850 8.69
4. Germany 41,480 4.40
5. India 36,970 3.93
6. UK 33,110 3.52
7. South Korea 31,580 3.35
8. Italy  25,530 2.71
9. France 25,170 2.67
10. Brazil  22,320 2.37
11. Canada 20,450 2.17
12. Russia 19,930 2.12
13. Mexico 14,880 1.58
14.Spain 13,610 1.44
15. Indonesia 13,540 1.44
Top 15 Total 662,360 70.07
Worldwide Total 941,883 100

PCs remain the overwhelming Internet access device, but other Internet enabled devices will grow in importance. Web cellular phones are and will continue to be the most important Internet appliance device. By 2010 Internet appliances may approach the number of PCs used for web access. However, most Internet users will be accessing the web from both PCs and information appliances such as web-enabled cell phones and Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices.

The next table shows the estimated number of Internet users per capita for leading countries at year-end 2001. The Scandinavian and N. America countries are the leaders. S. Korea has moved up due to rapid penetration of web cell phones.

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Table 1.5 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users Per Capita: 2004
Internet Users Per 1,000 People Year-end 2004
1. Iceland 701.8
2. Sweden  689.3
3. Denmark 689.0
4. Norway 664.3
5. South Korea 656.8
6. Australia 653.3
7. Japan 642.5
8. USA 632.2
9. Canada 629.0
10. Finland  628.0
11. New Zealand 616.4
12. Hong Kong  612.3
13. Switzerland  607.9
14. Netherlands 603.1
15. Portugal  602.3
Worldwide Total 147.3

In the next 10 years the Internet will have a dramatic impact on every facet of our lives. Most of the industrialized world will be using PCs and information/web appliances at home and at work. Many households in industrialized countries will have multiple web appliances and some will have multiple PCs that will manage and synchronize all the information that flow to and from the Internet. Web cell phones will proliferate and will attract a large number of mobile Internet applications and services. The developing countries will also have made tremendous strides in using the Internet. The wireless Internet devices will be especially important in the countries that have limited land-based telecommunications infrastructure. A speculative, but reasonable 2015 scenario for Internet access devices is shown in the next table.

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Table 1.6  Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015
USA Worldwide
1. Over 300M Internet users
2. Over 330M PCs in use
3. Over 80% of office workers use PCs
4. Over 95% of households will have PCs
5. Over 320M cell phones in use
6. Over 70% of population will use web cell phones and web devices at home and at work		 1. Over 2B Internet users
2. Over 1.5B PCs in use
3. Over 65% of office workers use PCs
4. Over 50% of households will have PCs
5. Over 3.5B cell phones in use
6. 25% of population will use web cell phones and web devices at home and at work

Most of the Western European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea will have penetration scenarios similar to the U.S. for 2015.

It is reasonable to predict that the Internet will have a bigger impact than the combined effect of the phone, TV and PC in the next 10 to 15 years.

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