eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Internet User Forecast by Country

INTERNET USER FORECAST BY COUNTRY
An Estimate and Forecast of Internet Users in 57 Countries and 6 Regions of the World.

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Internet User Driving Forces
1.2 Wireless Internet User
1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

Table of Contents

1.0	Executive Summary	6
1.1	Internet User Driving Forces	7
1.2	Wireless Internet User	9
1.3	Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users	9
2.0	Internet User Trends	12
2.1	What is an Internet User?	12
2.2	What is Included in the Internet User Forecast?	14
2.3	What Countries and Regions Are Included?	15
2.4	Internet Market Perspectives	16
2.5	Technology Impact on Internet Use	18
2.6	Internet User Hardware Platforms	21
2.7	Internet User Summary Data	21
3.0	Forecast Methodology and Assumptions	25
3.1	Forecast Methodology	25
3.1.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates	27
3.1.2	Forecast Assumptions	28
3.2	Information Sources	29
3.2.1	Survey/Projection Accuracy	30
4.0	Internet Users Estimates and Forecast	32
4.1	Internet Users by Country	32
4.2	Internet Users per 1,000 People by Country	33
4.3	Weekly Internet Users by Country	35
4.4	Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users	37
4.5	Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users per Capita	39
4.6	Internet Users Frequency Perspectives.	41
4.7	Wireless Internet Users	42
4.8	Broadband Subscribers	47
5.0	Internet User Forecast Spreadsheet Details	52
5.1	Internet User Data for 57 Countries	53
5.2	Internet User Data by Regions	101
5.43	Other Research Reports by eTForecasts	109

List of Tables and Figures


Table 1.1	U.S. & Worldwide Internet User Growth	6
Figure 1.1	Internet Users by Regions	7
Table 1.2	Internet User Driving Forces	7
Table 1.3	Wireless Internet Users	9
Table 1.4	Top 15 Countries In Internet Users: 2008	10
Table 1.5	Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2008	10
Table 1.6	Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015	11
Table 2.1	Internet User Categories	12
Table 2.2	Internet User Category Relationships	12
Table 2.3	Internet Usage Places	13
Table 2.4	Internet User Forecast Content	14
Table 2.5	Countries by Regions	15
Table 2.6	PC Market Perspectives	17
Table 2.7	Internet Industry Perspectives	18
Table 2.8	Technology Impact of Internet Use	19
Table 2.9	Internet User Summary By Regions	21
Table 2.10	Weekly Internet User Summary By Regions	22
Table 2.11	Broadband Subscriber Summary by Regions	23
Table 3.1	Ultimate Internet Penetration Factors	27
Table 3.2	Internet Market Statistics Sources	29
Table 4.1	Internet Users By Country	32
Table 4.2	Internet Users Per 1,000 People By Country	34
Table 4.3	Weekly Internet Users By Country	35
Table 4.4	Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 1995 and 2000	37
Table 4.5	Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2005 and 2008	38
Table 4.6	Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2010 and 2014	38
Table 4.7	Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 1995 and 2000	39
Table 4.8	Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2005 and 2008	40
Table 4.9	Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2010 and 2014	40
Table 4.10	Internet User Frequency Relations	41
Table 4.11	Top 15 Countries In Internet Usage	41
Table 4.12	PC Internet versus Wireless Internet	43
Table 4.13	Wireless Internet Users by Regions	45
Table 4.14	Wireless Internet Users: Selected Countries	46
Table 4.15	Broadband Subscribers by Country	47
Table 4.16	Broadband Subscribers Per 1,000 People by Country	49
Table 5.1	Internet User Forecast Content	52
Table 5.2	Argentina	53
Table 5.3	Australia	54
Table 5.4	Austria	55
Table 5.5	Belgium	55
Table 5.6	Brazil	56
Table 5.7	Bulgaria	57
Table 5.8	Canada	58
Table 5.9	Chile	59
Table 5.10	China	60
Table 5.11	Columbia	61
Table 5.12	Czech Republic	61
Table 5.13	Denmark	62
Table 5.14	Egypt	63
Table 5.15	Estonia	64
Table 5.16	Finland	64
Table 5.17	France	65
Table 5.18	Germany	66
Table 5.19	Greece	67
Table 5.20	Hong Kong	68
Table 5.21	Hungary	69
Table 5.22	Iceland	70
Table 5.23	India	70
Table 5.24	Indonesia	71
Table 5.25	Ireland	72
Table 5.26	Israel	73
Table 5.27	Italy	74
Table 5.28	Japan	75
Table 5.29	Latvia	76
Table 5.30	Lithuania	76
Table 5.31	Malaysia	77
Table 532	Mexico	78
Table 5.33	Netherlands	79
Table 5.34	New Zealand	80
Table 5.35	Norway	81
Table 5.36	Peru	81
Table 5.37	Philippines	82
Table 5.38	Poland	83
Table 5.39	Portugal	84
Table 5.40	Romania	85
Table 5.41	Russia	85
Table 5.42	Saudi Arabia	86
Table 5.43	Singapore	87
Table 5.44	Slovakia	88
Table 5.45	Slovenia	89
Table 5.46	South Africa	90
Table 5.47	South Korea	90
Table 5.48	Spain	91
Table 5.49	Sweden	92
Table 5.50	Switzerland	93
Table 5.51	Taiwan	94
Table 5.52	Thailand	95
Table 5.53	Turkey	96
Table 5.54	Ukraine	96
Table 5.55	United Kingdom	97
Table 5.56	USA	98
Table 5.57	Uruguay	99
Table 5.58	Venezuela	100
Table 5.59	Other Countries	101
Table 5.60	Worldwide	101
Table 5.61	North America	102
Table 5.62	Western Europe	103
Table 5.63	Eastern Europe	104
Table 5.64	Asia Pacific	105
Table 5.65	South/Central America	106
Table 5.66	Middle East & Africa	107

1.0 Executive Summary

The Internet began as a university research project in 1969 and was funded by ARPA—a U.S. military research organization. For the next 20 years the Internet and its predecessor, the ARPANET, existed mostly in obscurity. It was primarily a network for government and academic researchers during this timeframe. The defining event of the Internet happened in 1989 when Tim Berners-Lee proposed the World Wide Web. A year later the web became a reality when the first primitive web browser was implemented. The release of the free Mosaic browser in 1993 and the Netscape browser in 1994 allowed millions of PCs already in use to quickly and inexpensively get on the Internet.

At the end of 1989, there were 1.1M Internet users worldwide and about 86% were in the U.S. In the 1990s the worldwide number of Internet users grew 250-fold to over 290M for a compound annual growth rate of over 74%. The growth in the number of U.S. Internet users is slowing due to the high level of penetration. The worldwide number will grow at a stronger rate due to low penetration levels in many regions. The next table summarizes the growth in U.S. and worldwide Internet users over the last 20 years.

Table 1.1 US and Worldwide Internet User Growth

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2010 2014

US Internet Users (#M) 0.019 1.80 28.1 135 210 234 258 284

US Internet User share (%) 89.6 84.5 62.3 32.2 17.3 14.7 13.2 11.3

US Internet Users/1,000 People (#) 0.08 7.2 105 476 704 770 820 882

Worldwide Internet Users (#M) 0.021 2.13 45.1 420 1,081 1,592 1,931 2,517

Worldwide Internet Users/1,000 People (#) 0.004 0.40 7.91 68.8 167 239 283 352

At the end of 2000 the U.S. had nearly 135M Internet users. Between 1990 and 1995 the compound annual growth rate of U.S. Internet users was over 73% and slowed to 36% between 1995 and 2000. From 2000 to 2005 the U.S. number of Internet users grew by 8% and will grow by less than 6% per year between 2005 and 2010.

The worldwide number of Internet users zoomed from 2.1M at year-end 1990 to over 45M in 1995, which is a compound annual growth rate of over 84%. From 1995 to 2000 the compound annual growth rate slowed to 56% and to less than 21% between 2000 and 2005. For the next five years the worldwide number of Internet users is forecasted to grow by less than 11% per year.

The next figure shows the growth of Internet users for the main regions of the world. Six regions and the U.S. Internet user totals are listed in the bar graph. The estimates show that Asia Pacific became the largest region with 193M Internet users in 2001, which will grow to over 1.2B Internet users in 2014. Western Europe with 355M Internet users in 2014 will also top the 284M Internet users forecasted for the U.S. The Middle East/Africa region will have the strongest Internet user growth at over 208M in 2014, from 108M in 2008 and from less than 13M Internet users in 2000.

Figure 1.1 Internet Users by Regions

Increasing usage of wireless web devices will cause much of the Internet user growth—especially in the developing countries. In 2005 less than 22% of Internet users were using wireless devices to access the Internet—up from less than 1.7% in 1999. A large portion of the wireless web users is currently in Japan, S. Korea, China, USA and W. Europe. In the next five years the growth of wireless Internet users will grow from less than 30% of all Internet users in 2007 to over 65% in 2014. Many of these users will be using multiple Internet access devices.

1.1 Internet User Driving Forces

There are numerous factors that are driving the growth of the Internet. The key driving forces are summarized in the next table. The left column shows important factors that have been active recently and will continue to add growth to the Internet. The right column lists the factors that are emerging and are likely to have a strong impact in the next five years.

Table 1.2 Internet User Driving Forces
1996-2007	2008-2014
Email proliferation Free web browser Content explosion Under $1K PCs (1997) Intranets for business users Web hosting services Business-to-consumer e-commerce PC purchase rebates from ISPs Business-to-business e-commerce Declining & fixed ISP rates Under $500 PCs (2000) “Free” ISP rates in international markets Web-driven productivity gains Internet/cyber cafes Business-to-business e-commerce Cable modem & DSL connections Home networks for Internet access device	Broadband connections: DSL, fiber & others Handsets with Internet access Internet access via wireless access points Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices Multi-function handheld devices* Web content for wireless/handheld devices Unmetered Internet access fees Prepaid Internet access cards E-commerce in developing countries M-commerce (e-commerce for mobile devices) Social network websites (Facebook etc) Netbook PCs ($200-$400) Internet entertainment content $50 handset with Internet access Location-based content Internet entertainment content Mobile Internet devices (MID) Mobile broadband connections (WiMax)

*Smartphones, handsets, media players and others

Low cost Internet access devices will continue to be a leading Internet user growth factor. A low cost PC in the $200 range is needed for the developing countries. It is sometimes called the “Hundred Dollar Laptop” which is the estimated manufacturing cost. The netbook PC is now taking its place and is seeing strong growth because it is selling worldwide because of the recession. By 2010 such a product may be in the $150 range. Of equal importance is the $50 web-enabled handset, which is likely to appear around 2008.

“Free” ISP rates are usually not free. They are used in countries where all telephone call fees are based on usage rates. The ISP offering “free” Internet access receives a share of the per minute telephone charge from the telephone company. However, un-metered Internet rates or a fixed monthly rate for unlimited use are becoming important—especially with broadband Internet connections. Un-metered rates will become increasingly important, as free ISP rates have peaked in importance.

Broadband Internet access such as cable modems and Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL) are growing rapidly and will have a positive impact on the user experience. Fiber optic broadband connections are also emerging and will take a growing share. The U.S. has been slow to add broadband infrastructure and Canada, Japan, S. Korea and other countries have much higher broadband penetration than the U.S. DSL technology is the leading broadband technology in most countries because it uses the existing telephone network infrastructure.

The emerging 3G cellular technologies will be very important due to its “always-on” characteristics. 3G cellular networks is a great improvement over current transfer rates. Current 3G networks have maximum data transfer rates of 384 Kbps for moving vehicles and 2 Mbps or higher for stationary handsets. Higher maximum speeds are emerging and these upgrades are often called 3.5G. However, due to multiple users sharing this bandwidth in each cell, the average bandwidth for each user will be much lower than the maximum rate.

Several other broadband technologies may also have an impact on Internet access. Wireless LANs (Wi-Fi or IEEE 802.11) use an unlicensed frequency band in the 2.5 GHz range for local wireless communication to mobile devices. The growth of wireless access points that provide broadband Internet access to mobile devices using IEEE 802.11 protocol is currently seeing strong growth. WiMax or IEEE 802.16 is an emerging wireless technology that shows future potential for broadband connectivity. WiMax has a much larger range than Wi-Fi and will compete with 3G and 3.5G cellular networks.

Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices will have a growing impact on Internet usage. An increasing number of 2.5G and 3G cell phones will have Internet access capabilities and will extend the time and place of Internet access. Web-enabled handsets will also extend the number of Internet users—especially in developing countries where fixed phones lines are limited. Web appliances and web-entertainment appliances will also extend the time and place of Internet access.

1.2 Wireless Internet User

The wireless Internet was perceived as a disappointment due to earlier inflated expectations a few years ago. By 2006, the wireless Internet had only lived up to expectations in Japan and S. Korea. In the last two years the wireless Internet has taken off in the USA, W. Europe, China and other regions. The Apple iPhone deserves much of the credit since its user interface made it much easier to access Internet content. Other mobile phone manufacturers followed and the mobile phone Internet access is now growing very fast.

The importance of the wireless web is shown in the next table. It is important to note that most of the wireless Internet users are also using the Internet via PCs.

Table 1.3 Wireless Internet Users
Region		2003	2005	2008	2014
USA	Internet Users (#M)	174	198	234	284
	Wireless Internet Users (#M)	12	22	62	179
	Wireless Internet User Share (%)	7.2	11.2	26.6	62.9
Worldwide	Internet Users (#M)	827	1,094	1,592	2,517
	Wireless Internet Users (#M)	143	239	616	1,654
	Wireless Internet User Share (%)	17.3	21.8	38.7	65.7

The wireless Internet is making progress with the deployment of 3G and 3.5G-packet communication networks. Packet networks are always on, which eliminates the lengthy log-on procedure. Useful Internet content for the small displays of wireless devices is expanding and simpler user interfaces are now available. As the wireless Internet user experience improves, an increasing portion of the dormant web-enabled phones will become active wireless Internet devices.

1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

The worldwide number of Internet users passed 130M in 1997 topped 564M in 2001 and surpassed 1B in 2005. Much of the growth in Internet users is taking place outside the U.S. Asia will see especially strong growth in the next five years. China surpassed Japan and became second to the U.S. in number of Internet users in 2002 and became #1 in 2008. At the end of 2000 the U.S. accounted for 31.3% of total Internet users, down from 44.6% in 1998 and 55.7% in 1996. U.S. Internet user share dropped below 20% in 2004 and below 15% in 2008. The next table is the estimated country ranking of Internet users for year-end 2008.

Table 1.4 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users: 2008
Internet Users (#K)	Year-End 2008	Share %
1. China	235,100	14.76
2. U.S.	234,240	14.71
3. India	108,410	6.81
4. Japan	99,010	6.22
5. Germany	57,030	3.58
6. UK	44,890	2.82
7. Brazil	41,170	2.59
8. France	39,460	2.48
9. Italy	37,370	2.35
10. South Korea	36,940	2.32
11. Russia	35,890	2.25
12. Indonesia	33,300	2.09
13. Canada	26,060	1.64
14.Mexico	25,450	1.60
15. Spain	22,910	1.44
Top 15 Total	1,077,230	67.65
Worldwide Total	1,592,404	100

PCs remain the leading Internet access device, but other Internet enabled devices will grow in importance. Web cell phones are and will continue to be the most important Internet appliance device. By 2014 Internet-enabled mobile phones may approach the number of PCs used for web access. However, most Internet users will be accessing the web from both PCs and web-enabled cell phones and Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices.

The next table shows the estimated number of Internet users per capita for leading countries at year-end 2008. The Scandinavian, N. American and W. European countries are the leaders plus a few Asian countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan and S. Korea. Japan and S. Korea have moved up due to rapid penetration of web cell phones.

Table 1.5 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users Per Capita: 2008

Internet Users Per 1,000 People Year-end 2008

1. Iceland 831.1

2. Sweden 814.8

3. Norway 803.1

4. Denmark 802.6

5. Australia 788.1

6. Canada 784.7

7. Singapore 780.2

8. Japan 778.5

9. Finland 774.5

10. Hong Kong 772.9

11. Netherlands 770.0

12. New Zealand 770.0

13. USA 769.9

14. South Korea 763.5

15. UK 736.6

Worldwide Total 238.6

In the next 10 years the Internet will have a dramatic impact on every facet of our lives. Most of the industrialized world will be using PCs, mobile phones and information/web appliances for Internet access. Many households in industrialized countries will have multiple web access devices and some will have multiple PCs that will manage and synchronize all the information that flow to and from the Internet. Web cell phones will proliferate and will attract a large number of mobile Internet applications and services. The developing countries will also have made tremendous strides in using the Internet. The wireless Internet devices will be especially important in the countries that have limited land-based telecommunications infrastructure. A speculative but reasonable 2015 scenario for Internet access devices is shown in the next table.

Table 1.6 Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015

USA Worldwide

1. In 2015 there will be over 285M Internet users
2. In 2015 there will be over 335M PCs in use
3. Over 80% of office workers use PCs
4. Over 95% of households will have PCs
5. There will be over 340M cell phones in use
6. There will be 195M wireless Internet users 1. In 2015 there will be over 2.6B Internet users
2. In 2015 there will be over 1.9B PCs in use
3. Over 65% of office workers use PCs
4. Over 50% of households will have PCs
5. There will be over 5B cell phones in use
6. There will be 2B wireless Internet users

Most of the Western European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea will have penetration scenarios similar to the U.S. for 2015.

It is reasonable to predict that the Internet and Internet access devices will have a bigger impact than the combined effect of the phone, TV and PC in the next 10 to 15 years.

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