eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Computers-in-Use

COMPUTERS-IN-USE FORECAST BY COUNTRY
An estimate and forecast of computers-in-use in
57 countries and 6 regions of the world

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use
1.2 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces

Computers-in-Use: Table of Contents

1.0	Executive Summary	5
1.1	Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use	6
1.2	Computers-in-Use Driving Forces	7
2.0	Computers-in Use trends	9
2.1	What is Included in the Computers-in-Use Forecast?	9
2.2	What is Included in the PCs-in-Use Forecast?	9
2.3	What Countries and Regions are Included?	11
2.4	PC Market Perspectives	12
2.5	Computers-in-Use Summary Data	15
2.6	PCs-in-Use Summary Data	16
2.7	Historical Perspectives on USA PC Industry	17
3.0	Forecast Methodology and Assumptions	23
3.1	Forecast Methodology	23
3.1.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates	25
3.1.2	Forecast Assumptions	27
3.2	Internet Hardware Platforms	28
3.3	Information Sources	30
4.0	Computers-in-Use by Country	32
4.1	Leading Countries by Number of Computers-in-Use	35
4.2	Leading Countries by Number of Computers-in-Use per Capita	37
4.3	PCs-in-Use by Country	39
4.4	Leading Countries by Number of PCs-in-Use	42
4.5	Leading Countries by Number of PCs-in-Use per Capita	44
5.0	Computers-in-Use Forecast Spreadsheet Details	47
5.1	Computers-in-Use Data for 57 Countries	48
5.2	Computers-in-Use Data by Regions	92
6.0	Other Research Reports by Computer Industry Almanac & eTForecasts	100

Computers-in-Use: List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1	U.S. and Worldwide Computers-in-Use Growth	5
Figure 1.1	Computers-in-Use by Regions	6
Table 1.2	Top 15 Countries by Computers and PCs-in-Use: 2008	6
Table 1.3	Computers-in-Use Driving Forces	7
Table 2.1	What Is Included in the Computers-in-Use Forecast?	9
Table 2.2	What Is Included in the PCs-in-Use Forecast?	9
Table 2.3	Countries by Regions	11
Table 2.4	PC Market Perspectives	13
Table 2.5	Computers-in-Use Summary by Region	15
Table 2.6	PCs-in-Use Summary by Region	16
Table 2.7	USA Historical PC Sales	18
Table 2.8	USA PC Generations 1-3	19
Table 2.9	USA PC Generations: 4-6	19
Table 2.10	USA PC Generations: 7-10	20
Table 3.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates	25
Table 3.2	Ultimate USA PC Penetration in 2020	26
Table 3.3	USA 2020 PC Replacement Sales Scenario	27
Table 3.4	Information/Internet Appliances	29
Table 3.5	Computer Market Statistics Sources	30
Table 4.1	Computers-in-Use by Country	32
Table 4.2	Computers-in-Use per 1,000 People by Country	34
Table 4.3	Top 15 Countries by Computers-in-Use: 1990 and 1995	35
Table 4.4	Top 15 Countries by Computers-in-Use: 2000 and 2005	36
Table 4.5	Top 15 Countries by Computers-in-Use: 2008 and 2013	36
Table 4.6	Top 15 Countries by Computers/1,000 People: 1990 and 1995	37
Table 4.7	Top 15 Countries by Computers/1,000 People: 2000 and 2005	38
Table 4.8	Top 15 Countries by Computers/1,000 People: 2008 and 2013	38
Table 4.9	PCs-in-Use by Country	39
Table 4.10	PCs-in-Use Per 1,000 People by Country	41
Table 4.11	Top 15 Countries by PCs-in-Use: 1990 and 1995	43
Table 4.12	Top 15 Countries by PCs-in-Use: 2000 and 2005	43
Table 4.13	Top 15 Countries by PCs-in-Use: 2008 and 2013	44
Table 4.14	Top 15 Countries by PCs Per 1,000 People: 1995 and 2000	44
Table 4.15	Top 15 Countries by PCs Per 1,000 People: 2005 and 2010	45
Table 4.16	Top 15 Countries by PCs Per 1,000 People: 2008 and 2013	46
Table 5.1	Computers-in-Use Forecast Content	47
Table 5.2	Argentina	48
Table 5.3	Australia	49
Table 5.4	Austria	49
Table 5.5	Belgium	50
Table 5.6	Brazil	51
Table 5.7	Bulgaria	52
Table 5.8	Canada	52
Table 5.9	Chile	53
Table 5.10	China	54
Table 5.11	Columbia	55
Table 5.12	Czech Republic	56
Table 5.13	Denmark	57
Table 5.14	Egypt	57
Table 5.15	Estonia	58
Table 5.16	Finland	59
Table 5.17	France	60
Table 5.18	Germany	60
Table 5.19	Greece	61
Table 5.20	Hong Kong	62
Table 5.21	Hungary	63
Table 5.22	Iceland	64
Table 5.23	India	64
Table 5.24	Indonesia	65
Table 5.25	Ireland	66
Table 5.26	Israel	67
Table 5.27	Italy	67
Table 5.28	Japan	68
Table 5.29	Latvia	69
Table 5.30	Lithuania	70
Table 5.31	Malaysia	71
Table 5.32	Mexico	71
Table 5.33	Netherlands	72
Table 5.34	New Zealand	73
Table 5.35	Norway	74
Table 5.36	Peru	74
Table 5.37	Philippines	75
Table 5.38	Poland	76
Table 5.39	Portugal	77
Table 5.40	Romania	77
Table 5.41	Russia	78
Table 5.42	Saudi Arabia	79
Table 5.43	Singapore	79
Table 5.44	Slovakia	80
Table 5.45	Slovenia	81
Table 5.46	South Africa	82
Table 5.47	South Korea	82
Table 5.48	Spain	83
Table 5.49	Sweden	84
Table 5.50	Switzerland	85
Table 5.51	Taiwan	86
Table 5.52	Thailand	86
Table 5.53	Turkey	87
Table 5.54	Ukraine	88
Table 5.55	United Kingdom	89
Table 5.56	USA	89
Table 5.57	Uruguay	90
Table 5.58	Venezuela	91
Table 5.59	Other Countries	92
Table 5.60	Worldwide	92
Table 5.61	North America	94
Table 5.62	Western Europe	95
Table 5.63	Eastern Europe	96
Table 5.64	Asia Pacific	97
Table 5.65	South/Central America	98
Table 5.66	Middle East & Africa	99

1.0 Executive Summary

As a commercial product the computer industry is over 50 years old. Today the computer industry is arguably the most important industry in the world. The computer industry and its technologies are the basis for all information technologies and accounts for over 5% of the world’s gross domestic products. As a tool the computer is a crucial element in many industries ranging from telecommunications and consumer electronics to medical research and automobiles. Computer-based products range from deciphering the human gene to exploratory and teaching toys.

The U.S. share of total computers is declining at a steady rate. In 1980 the U.S. accounted for nearly 70% of all computers-in-use and retained over half of the computers-in-use until 1989. In 2000 the U.S. share dipped to 33% of all computers-in-use with a further decline below 21% projected for 2010.

Table 1.1 US and Worldwide Computers-in-Use Growth

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. Computers-in-Use (#M) 3.1 22.2 51.3 90.2 184 239 290-300 345-355

5-year Growth (%) 60.2 48.6 18.3 11.9 15.3 5.3 3.9-4.6 2.8-4.1

U.S. Computers-in-Use Share (%) 64.8 61.6 48.9 37.9 33.3 25.5 20-21 17-18

U.S. Computers-in-Use/1,000 People (#) 13.4 93.0 205 338 652 808 935-970 1,070-1,100

Worldwide Computers-in-Use (#M) 4.8 36.0 105 238 553 938 1,430-1,480 1,950-2,010

5-year Growth (%) 64.4 49.6 23.9 17.8 18.3 11.1 8.7-9.4 5.7-7.0

WW Computers-in-Use/1,000 People (#) 1.07 7.40 20.0 41.8 90.4 145.0 209-216 270-280

The U.S. computer market has matured and the vast majority of computer sales are replacement sales to upgrade and replace existing computers. In 2007 the sales of computers in the U.S. was over 70M units, but the installed base of computer will only increases by about 11M units. This is due to a replacement sales rate of about 84% of total yearly sales. The industrialized countries also have high replacement sales rates, but generally lower than the U.S.

The developing countries have much lower replacement sales rates than the industrialized countries. The result is that worldwide computer market has lots of room to grow. Total worldwide computer sales in 2007 surpassed 260M units. With a worldwide replacement sales rate of around 63%, the computers-in-use increased by 97M units in 2007.

These figures do not include embedded computers that are used to control all types of electronic and electromechanical products. Sales of embedded computers are many times higher than the numbers shown in the above table. Handheld computing devices, Smartphones and PDAs are also excluded from these figures.

The next figure shows the growth of computers-in-use for the major regions of the world. The figures are in millions of units.

Figure 1.1 Computers-in-Use by Regions

N. America, which includes USA and Canada, remains the largest region through 2003. Starting in 2004 Asia-Pacific had more computers-in-use than N. America. W. Europe has been in second place, but dropped to third place in computers-in-use in 2000—after N. America and Asia-Pacific.

1.1 Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use

The next table shows the top 15 countries with the most computers-in-use and most PCs-in-use estimated for year-end 2008. Since PCs normally account for 95% or more of total computers, the two rankings are very similar. The U.S. has a large lead with 2.6 times as many computers as the second place China. Japan was in second place in this ranking through 2006. The U.S. had 264M PCs in-use and 274M total computers.

Table 1.2 Top 15 Countries by Computers and PCs-in-Use: 2008

Computers-in-Use Units
(#M) Share
(%) PCs-in-Use Units
(#M) Share
(%)

1. U.S. 274.0 22.17 1. U.S. 264.1 22.19

2. China 102.3 8.28 2. Japan 98.67 8.29

3. Japan 89.69 7.26 3. China 86.22 7.24

4. Germany 64.37 5.21 4. Germany 61.96 5.21

5. UK 48.97 4.18 5. UK 47.04 4.17

6. France 44.70 3.62 6. France 43.11 3.62

7. Russia 37.82 3.06 7. South Korea 36.42 3.06

8. Italy 37.22 3.01 8. Italy 35.69 3.00

9. South Korea 36.32 2.94 9. Canada 34.87 2.93

10. Brazil 34.46 2.79 11. Brazil 33.30 2.80

11. India 33.28 2.69 10. Russia 32.03 2.69

12. Canada 28.69 2.32 12. Australia 27.63 2.32

13. Mexico 19.94 1.61 13. India 19.13 1.61

14. Australia 17.69 1.43 14. Mexico 17.01 1.43

15. Spain 17.38 1.41 15. Netherlands 16.71 1.40

Top 15 Countries 886.8 71.7 Top 15 Countries 853.9 71.8

Worldwide Total 1,236 100 Worldwide 1,190 100

As expected this ranking contains the large industrialized countries and a few of the countries with a large population. As a group these 15 countries dominate the computer market and account for nearly 72% of all computers-in-use in 2007.

Several countries are moving up in the rankings. China was 12th in 1995 and jumped to 3rd in 2002. Brazil was 15th in 1995 and is now in the 10th spot. India was not ranked in the Top 15 countries until 2002 when it placed in the 15th place. India will continue to move up in the rankings and is projected to be in 4th place in 2013.

1.2 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces

The growth of computer usage in the last 50 years has been caused by a variety of factors as shown in the next table. In the first 25 years of the computer industry the unit sales were counted in thousands for mainframes and then in hundreds of thousands for minicomputers. When PCs arrived the count went to millions, to tens of millions in the mid 1980s and to hundreds of millions starting in the late 1990s and may top 1B by 2007.

Table 1.3 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces
Pre 1990	1990-2000	2001-2010
Mainframes: 1950-1970 Minicomputers: 1965-1985 Hobby PCs: 1975-1978 Apple II: 1977-1985 Home PCs: 1980-1983 IBM PC: 1981-1990 IBM-compatibles: 1983-1990 Apple Macintosh: 1984-1995 UNIX workstations: 1985-1995 LANs: 1985-1995 Laptop PCs: 1986	Windows PCs: 1990 Notebook PCs: 1990 Client/Server systems: 1992 Windows 95/98 PCs: 1995 Windows NT Servers: 1994 Internet access PCs: 1994 Win NT workstations: 1997 PCs for intranets: 1996 Under $1K PCs: 1997 Website servers: 1998 Apple iMac & iBook: 1998 Under $500 PCs: 1999	Under $400 PCs Internet PCs Wireless notebook PCs Wireless LANs/access points Server PCs for e-commerce PC appliances Home PC servers Media/entertainment PCs Tablet PCs PCs for developing countries Ultra-Mobile PCs Handheld PCs

By the mid-1980s the PC became the driving force for the whole computer industry, and it retained this crown for over 10 years. By the late-1990s the PC became the means to get to the Internet and the dynamics of the PC industry changed. In the last eight years the Internet has upstaged the PC industry and the needs of Internet applications have become major factors in the growth of computers-in-use. Today the Internet and the applications based on it have become the main driving force for the PC and the whole computer industry. This trend is expected to last for another decade or more as new Internet applications emerge and prosper.

Over the next 10 years the PC industry will prosper and learn to live with two new driving forces—digital consumer electronics products (often called information or web appliances) and mobile communication devices (Smartphones and multifunction cell phones). Both digital entertainment and mobile communication devices use PC-based hardware and software platform technologies. The PC industry is very competitive and has a good track record of adapting to emerging technologies and market trends. This is likely to happen again and the PC industry will embrace digital entertainment and handheld communication devices.

Handheld communication devices such as PDAs, Smartphones and multifunction cell phones will augment PCs as Internet access devices in the next decade. But the growth of digital entertainment and communication devices will also create opportunities for PCs. Many digital entertainment and communication devices will be simplified PCs or application-specific computers. The infrastructure that will be required to connect and deliver services to the information/web appliances is another opportunity for PCs—especially for PC servers. The number of PC servers needed to feed the digital entertainment and communication devices will be in the millions of units as they will be proportional to the installed base of digital devices.

Another PC opportunity is the need that will develop in homes that have multiple PCs and/or digital entertainment and communication devices. A large portion of these homes will need a server that coordinates data transfers, data storage and other functions between the PCs and digital entertainment and communication devices. These home PC servers are already emerging for multi-PC households and will get a further boost from multi-digital device households. PC servers that manage entertainment content are also emerging and will become important in the next decade. Such media servers are based on a new version of Windows XP and are likely to be popular. The worldwide number of home PC servers will be in the tens of millions by 2013.

Inexpensive PCs designed for developing countries are getting attention and such products will be ready to make an impact in a few years. The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) is getting the most attention, but other low-cost PCs are also being developed and tested. By 2010 such low-cost PCs will increase the portion of families and companies that can afford a personal computer and the sales volume could be in tens of millions units per year. These low-cost PCs will be especially important in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asian countries.

Ultra-Mobile (UMPC) and Handheld PCs are emerging and will become two more form-factor categories to the PC industry. Ultra-Mobile PCs build on the tablet PC and may become the basis for PC appliances. Handheld PCs will initially be expensive compared to PDAs, but will cost less than $500 by 2010. They will be used as second PCs, but it is unclear how popular they will be due to competition from other handheld devices.

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