eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Computers-in-Use

COMPUTERS-IN-USE FORECAST BY COUNTRY
An estimate and forecast of computers-in-use in
57 countries and 6 regions of the world

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use
1.2 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces

Computers-in-Use: Table of Contents

1.0	Executive Summary	5
1.1	Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use	6
1.2	Computers-in-Use Driving Forces	7
2.0	Computers-in Use trends	9
2.1	What is Included in the Computers-in-Use Forecast?	9
2.2	What is Included in the PCs-in-Use Forecast?	9
2.3	PC Market Perspectives	11
2.4	Computers-in-Use Summary Data	13
2.5	PCs-in-Use Summary Data	15
3.0	Forecast Methodology and Assumptions	17
3.1	Forecast Methodology	17
3.1.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates	19
3.1.2	Forecast Assumptions	21
3.2	Internet Hardware Platforms	22
3.3	Information Sources	24
4.0	Computers-in-Use by Country	26
4.1	Leading Countries by Number of Computers-in-Use	29
4.2	Leading Countries by Number of Computers-in-Use per Capita	30
4.3	PCs-in-Use by Country	32
4.4	Leading Countries by Number of PCs-in-Use	35
4.5	Leading Countries by Number of PCs-in-Use per Capita	37
5.0	Computers-in-Use Forecast Spreadsheet Details	39
5.1	Computers-in-Use Data for 53 Countries	40
5.2	Computers-in-Use Data by Regions	77
6.0	eTForecasts Company Background	85
6.1	Author Bio	85
6.2	Other Research Reports by eTForecasts	85

Computers-in-Use: List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1	U.S. and Worldwide Computers-in-Use Growth	5
Figure 1.1	Computers-in-Use by Regions	6
Table 1.2	Top 15 Countries by Computers and PCs-in-Use: 2002	6
Table 1.3	Computers-in-Use Driving Forces	7
Table 2.1	What Is Included in the Computers-in-Use Forecast?	9
Table 2.2	What Is Included in the PCs-in-Use Forecast?	10
Table 2.3	PC Market Perspectives	11
Table 2.4	Computers-in-Use Summary by Region	14
Table 2.5	PCs-in-Use Summary by Region	15
Table 3.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates	20
Table 3.2	Ultimate USA PC Penetration in 2015	21
Table 3.3	USA 2015 PC Replacement Sales Scenario	21
Table 3.4	Information/Internet Appliances	23
Table 3.5	Computer Market Statistics Sources	24
Table 4.1	Computers-in-Use by Country	26
Table 4.2	Computers-in-Use per 1,000 People by Country	28
Table 4.3	Top 15 Countries by Computers-in-Use: 1995 and 2000	29
Table 4.4	Top 15 Countries by Computers-in-Use: 2005 and 2010	30
Table 4.5	Top 15 Countries by Computers/1,000 People: 1995 and 2000	31
Table 4.6	Top 15 Countries by Computers/1,000 People: 2005 and 2010	31
Table 4.7	PCs-in-Use by Country	32
Table 4.8	PCs-in-Use Per 1,000 People by Country	34
Table 4.9	Top 15 Countries by PCs-in-Use: 1995 and 2000	35
Table 4.10	Top 15 Countries by PCs-in-Use: 2003 and 2007	36
Table 4.11	Top 15 Countries by PCs Per 1,000 People: 1995 and 2000	37
Table 4.12	Top 15 Countries by PCs Per 1,000 People: 2005 and 2010	37
Table 5.1	Computers-in-Use Forecast Content	39
Table 5.2	Argentina	40
Table 5.3	Australia	41
Table 5.4	Austria	41
Table 5.5	Belgium	42
Table 5.6	Brazil	43
Table 5.7	Bulgaria	43
Table 5.8	Canada	44
Table 5.9	Chile	45
Table 5.10	China	46
Table 5.11	Columbia	46
Table 5.12	Czech Republic	47
Table 5.13	Denmark	48
Table 5.14	Egypt	49
Table 5.15	Finland	49
Table 5.16	France	50
Table 5.17	Germany	51
Table 5.18	Greece	51
Table 5.19	Hong Kong	52
Table 5.20	Hungary	53
Table 5.21	Iceland	54
Table 5.22	India	54
Table 5.23	Indonesia	55
Table 5.24	Ireland	56
Table 5.25	Israel	56
Table 5.26	Italy	57
Table 5.27	Japan	58
Table 5.28	Malaysia	59
Table 5.29	Mexico	59
Table 5.30	Netherlands	60
Table 5.31	New Zealand	61
Table 5.32	Norway	61
Table 5.33	Peru	62
Table 5.34	Philippines	63
Table 5.35	Poland	63
Table 5.36	Portugal	64
Table 5.37	Romania	65
Table 5.38	Russia	65
Table 5.39	Saudi Arabia	66
Table 5.40	Singapore	67
Table 5.41	Slovakia	67
Table 5.42	South Africa	68
Table 5.43	South Korea	69
Table 5.44	Spain	69
Table 5.45	Sweden	70
Table 5.46	Switzerland	71
Table 5.47	Taiwan	71
Table 5.48	Thailand	72
Table 5.49	Turkey	73
Table 5.50	Ukraine	73
Table 5.51	United Kingdom	74
Table 5.52	USA	75
Table 5.53	Uruguay	76
Table 5.54	Venezuela	76
Table 5.55	Other Countries	77
Table 5.56	Worldwide	78
Table 5.57	North America	78
Table 5.58	Western Europe	79
Table 5.59	Eastern Europe	80
Table 5.60	Asia Pacific	81
Table 5.61	South/Central America	82
Table 5.62	Middle East & Africa	83

1.0 Executive Summary

As a commercial product the computer industry is over 50 years old. Today the computer industry is arguably the most important industry in the world. The computer industry and its technologies are the basis for all information technologies and accounts for about 5% of the worlds gross domestic products. As a tool the computer is a crucial element in many industries ranging from telecommunications and consumer electronics to medical research and automobiles. Computer-based products range from deciphering the human gene to exploratory and teaching toys.

The U.S. share of total computers is declining at a steady rate. In 1980 the U.S. accounted for nearly 65% of all computers-in-use and retained over half of the computers-in-use until 1989. In 2000 the U.S. share dipped below 34% of all computers-in-use with a further decline below 22% projected for 2010.

Table 1.1 US and Worldwide Computers-in-Use Growth

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

U.S. Computers-in-Use (#M) 3.1 22.2 51.3 90.2 184 239 300-330

5-year Growth (%) 60.2 48.6 18.3 11.9 15.3 5.3 1.5-3.5

U.S. Computers-in-Use Share (%) 64.8 61.6 48.9 37.9 33.3 25.5 21-22

U.S. Computers-in-Use/1,000 People (#) 13.4 93.0 205 338 652 808 950-1,001

Worldwide Computers-in-Use (#M) 4.8 36.0 105 238 553 938 1,600-1,650

5-year Growth (%) 64.4 49.6 23.9 17.8 18.3 11.1 7.5-8.9

WW Computers-in-Use/1,000 People (#) 1.07 7.40 20.0 41.8 90.4 145.0 196-203

The U.S. computer market has matured and the vast majority of computer sales are replacement sales to upgrade and replace existing computers. In 2004 the sales of computers in the U.S. was about 53M units, but the installed base of computer will only increases by about 7M units. This is due to a replacement sales rate of about 87% of total yearly sales. The industrialized countries also have high replacement sales rates, but generally lower than the U.S.

The developing countries have much lower replacement sales rates than the industrialized countries. The result is that worldwide computer market has lots of room to grow. Total worldwide computer sales in 2004 surpassed 165M units. With a worldwide replacement sales rate of about 55%, the computers-in-use increased by 77M units in 2004.

These figures do not include embedded computers that are used to control all types of electronic and electromechanical products. Sales of embedded computers are many times higher than the numbers shown in the above table. Handheld computers and PDAs are also excluded from these figures.

The next figure shows the growth of computers-in-use for the major regions of the world. The figures are in millions of units.

Figure 1.1 Computers-in-Use by Regions

N. America, which includes USA and Canada, remains the largest region through 2004. Starting in 2005 Asia-Pacific will have more computers-in-use than N. America. By 2006 W. Europe has been in second place, but dropped to third place in computers-in-use 2001-after N. America and Asia-Pacific.

1.1 Leading Countries by Computers-in-Use

The next table shows the top 15 countries with the most computers-in-use and PCs-in-use estimated for year-end 2001. Since PCs normally account for 95% or more of total computers, the two rankings are the very similar. The U.S. has a large lead with over three times as many computers as the second place Japan.

Table 1.2 Top 15 Countries by Computers and PCs-in-Use: 2004

Computers-in-Use Units
(#M) Share
(%) PCs-in-Use Units
(#M) Share
(%)

1. U.S. 232.3 27.2 1. U.S. 223.8 27.2

2. Japan 72.02 8.42 2. Japan 69.20 8.42

3. China 55.10 6.44 3. China 52.99 6.45

4. Germany 48.10 5.62 4. Germany 46.30 5.63

5. UK 37.40 4.37 5. UK 35.89 4.37

6. France 30.62 3.38 6. France 29.41 3.58

7. South Korea 27.24 3.18 7. South Korea 26.20 3.15

8. Italy 23.74 2.78 8. Italy 22.65 2.75

9. Canada 23.26 2.72 9. Canada 22.39 2.72

10. Brazil 20.09 2.35 11. Brazil 19.35 2.35

11. Russia 19.79 2.32 10. Russia 19.01 2.31

12. Australia 14.28 1.67 12. Australia 13.72 1.67

13. India 13.71 1.60 13. India 13.03 1.58

14. Mexico 11.74 1.37 14. Mexico 11.21 1.36

15. Netherlands 11.53 1.35 15. Netherlands 11.11 1.35

Top 15 Countries 640.9 74.9 Top 15 Countries 616.3 75.0

Worldwide 855.3 100 Worldwide 822.2 100

As expected this ranking contains the large industrialized countries and a few of the countries with a large population. As a group these 15 countries dominate the computer market and account for about 76% of all computers-in-use.

Several countries are moving up in the rankings. China was 12th in 1995 and jumped to 3rd in 2002. Brazil was 15th in 1995 and reached the 10th spot in 2002. India has not been ranked in the Top 15 countries previously, but reached the 15th place in 2002.

1.2 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces

The growth of computer usage in the last 50 years has been caused by a variety of factors as shown in the next table. In the first 25 years of the computer industry the unit sales were counted in thousands for mainframes and then in hundreds of thousands for minicomputers. When PCs arrived the count went to millions, to tens of millions in the mid 1980s and to hundreds of millions starting in the late 1990s and may top 1B by 2007.

Table 1.3 Computers-in-Use Driving Forces
Pre 1990	1990-1999	2000-2010
Mainframes: 1950-1970 Minicomputers: 1965-1985 Hobby PCs: 1975-1978 Apple II: 1977-1985 Home PCs: 1980-1983 IBM PC: 1981-1990 IBM-compatibles: 1983-1990 Apple Macintosh: 1984-1995 UNIX workstations: 1985-1995 LANs: 1985-1995 Laptop PCs: 1986	Windows PCs: 1990 Notebook PCs: 1990 Client/Server systems: 1992 Windows 95/98 PCs: 1995 Windows NT Servers: 1994 Internet access PCs: 1994 Win NT workstations: 1997 PCs for intranets: 1996 Under $1K PCs: 1997 Website servers: 1998 Apple iMac & iBook: 1998 Under $500 PCs: 1999	Under $500 PCs Internet PCs Wireless notebook PCs Wi-Fi/access points E-commerce servers PC appliances PC server appliances Home PC servers Media/entertainment servers PC tablets Handheld PCs PCs for developing countries

By the mid-1980s the PC became the driving force for the whole computer industry, and it retained this crown for over 10 years. By the late-1990s the PC became the means to get to the Internet and the dynamics of the PC industry changed. In the last five years the Internet has upstaged the PC industry and the needs of Internet applications have become major factors in the growth of computers-in-use. Today the Internet and the applications based on it have become the main driving force for the PC and the whole computer industry.

Over the next 10 years the PC industry will prosper and learn to live with two new driving forces-information/web appliances and mobile information appliances or the web cellular devices. The PC industry is very competitive and has a good track record of adapting to emerging technologies and market trends. This is likely to happen again and the PC industry will embrace information appliances and cellular web devices.

Information appliances such as PDAs and web cell phones will augment PCs as Internet access devices in the next decade. But the growth of information/web appliances will also create opportunities for PCs. Many web appliances will be simplified PCs or application-specific computers. The infrastructure that will be required to connect and deliver services to the information/web appliances is another opportunity for PCs-especially for PC servers. The number of PC servers needed to feed the information/web appliances will be in the millions of units in five years as they will be proportional to the installed base of information appliances.

Another PC opportunity is the need that will develop in homes that have multiple PCs and/or information/web appliances. A large portion of these homes will need a server that coordinates data transfers, data storage and other functions between the PCs and information appliances. These home PC servers are already emerging for multi-PC households and will get a further boost from multi-IA households. PC servers that manage entertainment content are also emerging and will become important in the next decade. Such media servers are based on a new version of Windows XP that are likely to be popular. The worldwide number of home PC servers will be in the tens of millions by 2005.

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