eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Computers-in-Use

CELLULAR SUBSCRIBER FORECAST BY COUNTRY
An estimate and forecast of cellular subscribers and phone lines in 57 countries and 6
regions of the world. Regional handset sales are also included.

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
1.0 Executive Summary
1.1 Cellular Subscriber Driving Forces
1.2 Leading Countries by Cellular Subscribers

Cellular subscribers: Table of Contents

1.0	Executive Summary
1.1	Cellular Subscriber Driving Forces
1.2	Leading Countries by Number of Cellular Subscribers
2.0	Cellular Subscriber Trends
2.1	Cellular Technology Overview
2.2	What Is a Cellular Subscriber?
2.3	Cellular Industry Perspectives
2.4	Technology Impact on Cellular Use
2.5	Cellular Subscriber Summary Data
3.0	Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
3.1	Historical Data
3.2	Forecast Methodology
3.2.1	Ultimate Penetration Rates
3.3	Information Sources
4.0	Cellular Subscriber Estimate and Forecast
4.1	Cellular Subscribers by Country
4.2	Cellular Subscribers per 1,000 People by Country
4.3	Cellular Subscribers per Square Kilometer
4.4	Leading Countries by Number of Cellular Subscribers
4.5	Leading Countries by Number of Cellular Subscribers per Capita
4.6	Handset Sales by Region
4.7	Phone Lines by Country
4.8	Phone Lines per 1,000 People by Country
5.0	Cellular Subscriber Forecast Spreadsheet Details
5.1	Cellular Subscriber Data for 57 Countries
5.2	Cellular Subscriber Data by Regions

Cellular Subscribers: List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1	U.S. and Worldwide Cellular Growth
Figure 1.1	Cellular Subscribers by Regions
Table 1.2	Cellular Subscriber Driving Forces
Table 1.3	Top 15 Countries in Cellular Subscribers: 2004
Table 1.4	Top 15 Countries in Cellular Subscribers per Capita
Table 2.1	Cellular Technology Overview
Table 2.2	GSM versus CDMA
Table 2.3	Cellular Max Data Rates
Table 2.4	Regional Cell Phone Differences
Table 2.5	SIM Impact on Cellular Subscribers
Table 2.6	Cellular Subscriber Categories
Table 2.7	Cellular Industry Perspectives
Table 2.8	Cellular Technologies by Country
Table 2.9	PC Market Perspectives
Table 2.10	Internet Industry Perspectives
Table 2.11	Technology Impact on Cellular Use
Table 2.12	Cellular Subscriber Summary by Region
Table 3.1	Historical Data Availability
Table 3.2	Products In-Use per Capita
Table 3.3	Ultimate Penetration Factors: 2015
Table 3.4	Cellular Market Statistics Sources
Table 4.1	Cellular Subscribers by Country
Table 4.2	Cellular Subscribers per 1,000 People by Country
Table 4.3	Cellular Subscribers per Square Km by Country
Table 4.4	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers: 1995 and 2000
Table 4.5	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers: 2004 and 2005
Table 4.6	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers: 2007 and 2010
Table 4.7	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers per Capita: 1995 and 2000
Table 4.8	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers per Capita: 2004 and 2005
Table 4.9	Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers per Capita: 2007 and 2010
Table 4.10	Handset Sales by Regions
Table 4.11	Phone Lines by Country
Table 4.12	Phone Lines per 1,000 People by Country
Table 5.1	Cellular Subscriber Forecast Content
Table 5.2	Argentina
Table 5.3	Australia
Table 5.4	Austria
Table 5.5	Belgium
Table 5.6	Brazil
Table 5.7	Bulgaria
Table 5.8	Canada
Table 5.9	Chile
Table 5.10	China
Table 5.11	Columbia
Table 5.12	Czech Republic
Table 5.13	Denmark
Table 5.14	Egypt
Table 5.15	Estonia
Table 5.16	Finland
Table 5.17	France
Table 5.18	Germany
Table 5.19	Greece
Table 5.20	Hong Kong
Table 5.21	Hungary
Table 5.22	Iceland
Table 5.23	India
Table 5.24	Indonesia
Table 5.25	Ireland
Table 5.26	Israel
Table 5.27	Italy
Table 5.28	Japan
Table 5.29	Latvia
Table 5.30	Lithuania
Table 5.31	Malaysia
Table 5.32	Mexico
Table 5.33	Netherlands
Table 5.34	New Zealand
Table 5.35	Norway
Table 5.36	Peru
Table 5.37	Philippines
Table 5.38	Poland
Table 5.39	Portugal
Table 5.40	Romania
Table 5.41	Russia
Table 5.42	Saudi Arabia
Table 5.43	Singapore
Table 5.44	Slovakia
Table 5.45	Slovenia
Table 5.46	South Africa
Table 5.47	South Korea
Table 5.48	Spain
Table 5.49	Sweden
Table 5.50	Switzerland
Table 5.51	Taiwan
Table 5.52	Thailand
Table 5.53	Turkey
Table 5.54	Ukraine
Table 5.55	United Kingdom
Table 5.56	USA
Table 5.57	Uruguay
Table 5.58	Venezuela
Table 5.59	Other Countries
Table 5.60	Worldwide
Table 5.61	North America
Table 5.62	Western Europe
Table 5.63	Eastern Europe
Table 5.64	Asia Pacific
Table 5.65	South/Central America
Table 5.66	Middle East & Africa

1.0 Executive Summary

Cell phones have become the leading communication device in many countries and are starting to replace landline phone lines. This report estimates and forecasts the growth of cellular subscribers and phone lines from 1990 to 2010. The forecast covers 57 countries, six regions and a worldwide total. Handset sales estimates are available for the six regions from 1996 to 2010.

The next table summarizes the growth of cellular subscribers in the USA and worldwide. At the end of 1990, there were 11M cellular subscribers worldwide and nearly 49% were in the U.S. From 1990 to 2005 the worldwide number of cellular subscribers will grow 187-fold to 2,065M for a compound annual growth rate of nearly 42%. In 2005 the U.S. share of cellular subscribers fell below 10%. USA is projected to have 293M cellular subscribers in 2010—up from 202M in 2005. Worldwide cellular subscribers are forecasted to top 3.2 billion in 2010—nearly 48% of population.

Table 1.1 US and Worldwide Computers-in-Use Growth

1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010

U.S. Cellular Subscribers (#M) 5.3 34 109 202 239 293

U.S. Cellular Subscribers Share (%) 48.8 37.9 14.6 9.8 0.2 9.0

U.S. Cellular Subscribers/1,000 People (#) 21 127 388 683 793 946

U.S. Telephone Lines (#M) 136 160 193 177 176 175

U.S. Telephone Line Share (%) 26.0 23.0 19.6 14.0 13.2 12.7

U.S. Telephone Lines/1,000 People (#) 542 599 682 599 585 567

Worldwide Cellular Subscribers (#M) 11 89 752 2,065 2,594 3,254

WW Cellular Subscribers/1,000 People (#) 2.1 15.6 123 320 393 478

WW Telephone Lines (#M) 521 694 981 1,264 1,334 1,386

WW Telephone Lines/1,000 People (#) 99 122 161 195 202 204

The number of telephone lines in the U.S. peaked in 2000 at nearly 193M and is expected to decline to 175M in 2010. Worldwide number of telephone lines will continue to increase at a slow rate—from 521M in 1990 to over 1.2B in 2005 and to 1.38B in 2010.

The next figure shows the growth of cellular subscribers for the main regions of the world. Six regions and the U.S. cellular subscribers numbers are shown in the bar graph. Worldwide cellular subscribers topped 750M in 2000 are projected to surpass 2B in 2005. Further growth is forecasted and cellular subscribers will surpass 3.2B by 2010.

Figure 1.1 Cellular Subscribers by Regions

The projections show Asia Pacific became the largest region in 2001, and will grow from 847M in 2005 to 1.47B cellular subscribers in 2010. Asia Pacific will grow its market share from 33% in 2000 to 41% in 2005 and over 45% in 2010. Western Europe was the largest region in 2000 with 254M cellular subscribers, which will grow to 413M in 2010. North America will have 321M cellular subscribers in 2010. Latin America is projected to surpass N. America with nearly 370M cellular subscribers in 2010.

1.1 Cellular Subscriber Driving Forces

There are numerous factors that are driving the growth of the cellular subscribers. The key driving forces are summarized in the next table. The left column shows important factors that have been active recently and will continue to add growth to the cellular industry. The right column lists the factors that are emerging and are likely to have a strong impact in the next five years.

Table 1.2 Cellular Subscriber Driving Forces
	2000-2005	2006-2010
Developed Countries	· 2.5G network expansion · Text messaging · Multiple SIM cards per user · Camera phones · Family plan pricing · 3G network expansion	· Multi-function handset · 3G & 3.5G network expansion · Un-metered data pricing · Multiple SIM cards & M2M · MMS and video services · Internet access and new content
Developing Countries	· Pre-paid subscription · 2G network expansion · Under $50 handset · 2.5G network expansion · Text messaging	· Under $20 handset · 3G network expansion · Un-metered data pricing · New content services · Internet access

In the last five years cellular subscriber penetration is approaching saturation in many developed countries. Hence there is limited room for subscriber growth in the next five years. Machine-to-machine (M2M) communication where embedded wireless modems are for data transmission is one area of growth.

The majority of cellular subscriber growth will come from the developing countries such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and others countries in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America. Affordability and network coverage are the main factors that will expand the cellular subscriber growth in these regions. Hence the $20 handset may be the single most important factor for future growth.

1.2 Leading Countries by Cellular Subscribers

The worldwide number of cellular subscribers passed 1B in 2002 and topped 1.75B in 2004. Much of the growth in cellular customers is taking place outside the U.S. and W. Europe. Asia will see especially strong growth in the next five years. China became the largest country in cellular subscribers in 2001. The next table is the estimated country ranking of cellular subscribers for year-end 2004. The top 15 countries accounted for over 68% of worldwide cellular subscribers in 2004.

Handsets are much more affordable than PCs and many other electronic devices. Hence the most populous countries will eventually top this ranking if and when the cellular infrastructure is available. China is the most populous country and is the clear leader with over 334M cellular subscribers. USA is in second place with 182M cellular subscribers, but India is likely to surpass the U.S. in about five years.

Table 1.3 Top 15 Countries by Cellular Subscribers: 2004

Cellular Subscribers Units
(#M) Share
(%)
Cellular Subscribers/1000 People
(#)

1. China 334.8 19.11 1. Sweden 1,101

2. USA 182.1 10.40 2. Hong Kong 1,091

3. Japan 90.2 5.15 3. Israel 1,053

4. Russia 74.4 4.25 4. Portugal 1,024

5. Germany 69.3 3.96 5. Italy 1,001

6. Brazil 65.6 3.75 6. Taiwan 1,000

7. Italy 58.1 3.32 7. Czech Republic 1,000

8. UK 55.5 3.17 8. Iceland 997.5

9. India 48.1 2.75 9. Norway 997.1

10. France 44.6 2.54 10. Greece 995.4

11. Spain 39.0 2.23 11. Spain 968.1

12. Mexico 38.5 2.20 12. Slovenia 957.6

13. South Korea 36.6 2.09 13. Finland 944.7

14. Turkey 34.7 1.98 14. Denmark 929.6

15. Thailand 31.6 1.80 15. UK 921.0

Top 15 Countries 1,203 68.68 Worldwide 274.0

Worldwide 1,752 100

The previous table also shows the estimated number of cellular subscribers per capita for leading countries at year-end 2004. The European countries and two Asian countries are the leaders. The top 7 countries have more cellular subscribers than people. This is due to multiple SIM cards per person, multiple handsets per person (office and personal handset) and the use of embedded wireless modems in many types of electronic equipment.

In the next 10 years the cellular industry will have a dramatic impact on every facet of our lives. Nearly all people in the industrialized world will be using multifunction handsets at home and at work. The handset will be a communication tool for voice, data, pictures and video content. The handset will also be a computing and storage device for all types of business and personal content. The handset may also become a personal identification device used for financial transactions. In summary the handset will become an indispensable device.

The developing countries will also make tremendous strides in using wireless technology. The cellular phone will be especially important in the countries that have limited land-based telecommunications infrastructure. The handsets will see penetration surpassing 50% of the population in the next decade in the developing countries. Some subscribers will have a low-end handset, but by 2015 the low-end handset will far surpass the most advanced smartphone currently available.

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eTForecasts ej@etforecasts.com		Updated September 6, 2005