eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Worldwide PDA & Smartphone Forecast 1998-2008

WORLDWIDE PDA & SMARTPHONE FORECAST

Summary:
This is a market research report with historical data and sales projections of the worldwide Smartphone, PDA and handheld PC industry. The report gives a perspective and a top-down view of the Smartphone/PDA industry — past, present and future trends. The report and forecast includes estimates of seven leading PDA and Smartphone companies.

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Figures
Executive Summary
Handheld Computer Sales Summary

Table of Contents

1.0	Executive Summary	6
1.1	Handheld Computer Sales Summary	7
1.2	Smartphone/PDA Vendor Shipment	9
2.0	Handheld Computer Forecast Summary	10
2.1	What Is Included In the Handheld Computer Forecast?	10
2.2	Handheld Computer Market Perspectives	12
2.3	Worldwide Handheld Computer Sales Summary	13
2.4	USA Handheld Computer Sales Summary	15
3.0	Handheld Computer Technology Trends	18
3.1	Technology Trends	18
3.2	Semiconductor Technologies	21
3.3	Key Handheld Computer Technology Trends	23
3.4	Cellular Communications	26
3.4.1	Other Wireless Technologies	28
3.5	PDA & Smartphone Platform Overview	30
4.0	Worldwide Handheld Computer Forecast	33
4.1	Total Handheld Computer Unit Sales by Region	33
4.2	PDA Unit Sales by Region	35
4.3	Smartphone Unit Sales by Region	36
4.4	Handheld PC Unit Sales by Region	37
4.5	Handheld Computer Unit Sales by Operating System	39
4.6	Handheld Computers In-Use by Region	46
5.0	Worldwide Handheld Computer Revenue	51
5.1	Total Handheld Computer Revenue by Region	51
5.2	PDA Revenue by Region	52
5.3	Smartphone Revenue by Region	53
5.4	Handheld PC Revenue by Region	54
6.0	Worldwide Shipments of Leading PDA & Smartphone Vendors	56
6.1	USA Shipments of Leading PDA & Smartphone Vendors	57
7.0	Forecast Methodology and Perspectives	59
7.1	Handheld Computer Forecast Methodology	59
7.1	PDA/Smartphone and Related Industries	61
7.3	Worldwide PDA/Smartphone Scenario: 2015	64
7.4	Ultimate Handheld Computer Penetration in the U.S.	65
8.0	Forecast Spreadsheet Details	67
8.1	Handheld Computer Market Summary by Region	69
8.1.1	USA Market Summary	69
8.1.2	N. America Market Summary	72
8.1.3	W. Europe Market Summary	75
8.1.4	E. Europe Market Summary	78
8.1.5	Asia-Pacific Market Summary	81
8.1.6	Latin America Market Summary	84
8.1.7	Middle East & Africa Market Summary	87
8.1.8	Worldwide Market Summary	90
8.2	PDA/Smartphone Manufacturer Summary	93
8.2.1	Dell Computer	93
8.2.2	Hewlett-Packard	94
8.2.3	Motorola	96
8.2.4	Nokia	97
8.2.5	Palm	99
8.2.6	Research In Motion	100
8.2.7	Sony-Ericsson	102

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1	Handheld Computer Market Growth	6
Figure 1.1	Handheld Computer Sales by Region	7
Table 1.2	U.S. and Worldwide Handheld Computer Segments	7
Figure 1.2	PDA Sales by Region	8
Figure 1.3	Smartphone Sales by Region	8
Table 1.3	Handheld Computer Sales and In-Use per Capita	9
Table 1.4	Smartphone/PDA Sales by Leading Vendors	9
Table 2.1	What Is Included in the Handheld Computer Forecast?	10
Figure 2.1	Product Overlaps	11
Figure 2.2	Handheld Device Spectrum	12
Table 2.2	Handheld Computer Perspectives	13
Table 2.3	Worldwide Handheld Computer Market	14
Figure 2.3	Worldwide Handheld Computer Sales by Segment	14
Table 2.4	Worldwide Handheld Computer Market Segments	15
Table 2.5	USA Handheld Computer Market	15
Figure 2.5	USA Handheld Computer Unit Sales	16
Table 2.6	USA Handheld Computer Market Segments	17
Figure 3.1	Technologies for Handheld Computer	18
Figure 3.2	Technology Price-Performance Wedge	19
Table 3.1	Technology Wedge Impact	20
Figure 3.3	Technology Wedge Families	20
Table 3.2	Semiconductor Technology Trends	21
Table 3.3	Semiconductor Impact on Handheld Computer Industry	23
Table 3.4	Technology Impact on Handheld Computers	24
Table 3.5	Cellular Technology Overview	26
Table 3.6	Cellular Technology Speed	28
Table 3.7	Short-Range Wireless Technologies	29
Table 3.8	Handheld Computer OS Platforms	31
Table 4.1	Handheld Computer Unit Sales by Region	33
Table 4.2	Handheld Computer Regional Market Shares	34
Table 4.3	Regional Handheld Computer Sales per 1000 People	34
Table 4.4	PDA Unit Sales by Region	35
Table 4.5	PDA Regional Market Shares	36
Table 4.6	Smartphone Unit Sales by Region	36
Table 4.7	Smartphone Regional Market Shares	37
Table 4.8	Handheld PC Unit Sales by Region	38
Table 4.9	Handheld PC Regional Market Shares	38
Table 4.10	PDA Sales by Operating System	39
Table 4.11	Smartphone Sales by Operating System	42
Table 4.12	Handheld PC Sales by Operating System	45
Table 4.13	Handheld Computers In-Use per 1000 People	47
Table 4.14	Handheld Computers In-Use by Region	47
Table 4.15	PDAs In-Use by Region	48
Table 4.16	Smartphones In-Use by Region	49
Table 4.17	Handheld PCs In-Use by Region	49
Table 5.1	Handheld Computer Revenue by Region	51
Table 5.2	Regional Handheld Computer Revenue Market Shares	52
Table 5.3	PDA Revenue by Region	52
Table 5.4	Regional PDA Revenue Market Shares	53
Table 5.5	Smartphone Revenue by Region	53
Table 5.6	Regional Smartphone Revenue Market Shares	54
Table 5.7	Handheld PC Revenue by Region	54
Table 5.8	Regional Handheld PC Revenue Market Shares	55
Table 6.1	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: WW Sales 2000-2005	56
Table 6.2	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: WW Sales 2006-20011	56
Table 6.3	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: WW Unit Market Share	57
Table 6.4	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: USA Sales 2000-2005	57
Table 6.5	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: USA Sales 2006-20011	58
Table 6.6	Leading PDA/Smartphone Vendors: USA Unit Market Share	58
Table 7.1	Forecast Development Methodology	59
Table 7.2	Related Product Sales and Installed Base	61
Table 7.3	Products In-Use per 1,000 People	62
Table 7.4	PCs In-Use and Cellular Subscribers	63
Table 7.5	Handheld Computer Scenario 2015: Home/Consumer	64
Table 7.6	Handheld Computer Scenario 2015: Office/Business	65
Table 7.7	Ultimate USA Handheld Computer 2020 Penetration	66
Table 7.8	2020 USA Handheld Computer Replacement Sales Scenario	66
Table 8.1	Handheld Computer Forecast Content	67
Table 8.2	PDA/Smartphone Vendor Forecast Content	67
Table 8.3	Countries by Regions	68
Table 8.4	USA Market Summary	69
Table 8.5	N. America Market Summary	72
Table 8.6	W. Europe Market Summary	75
Table 8.7	E. Europe Market Summary	78
Table 8.8	Asia-Pacific Market Summary	81
Table 8.9	Latin America Market Summary	85
Table 8.10	Middle East/Africa Market Summary	88
Table 8.11	Worldwide Market Summary	91
Table 8.12	Dell Computer	94
Table 8.13	Hewlett-Packard	95
Table 8.14	Motorola	96
Table 8.15	Nokia	98
Table 8.16	Palm	99
Table 8.17	Research In Motion	101
Table 8.18	Sony-Ericsson	102

1.0 Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to look at the handheld computer market in the USA and the main regions of the worldwide. Three product categories are included: PDAs, Smartphones and the emerging handheld PC. The PDA market is now 15 years old and got its start in 1990 with Apple’s Newton. The Newton is considered a failure, but a new industry was born and the name used by Apple—Programmable Digital Assistant (PDA) is still with us. The Smartphone segment is barely five years old, but is already the largest category and is rapidly dwarfing the PDA segment. The handheld PC is just a year old and its long-term potential is still very uncertain.

The next table shows the tremendous growth of the handheld computer industry in the last 15 years. And the growth of the industry will continue strongly, but at a declining rate. In 1990, the first year for the PDA industry, less than 10K units were sold. In 2000, the U.S. PDA unit sales were nearly 6M while worldwide sales topped 11M devices.

Table 1.1. Handheld Computer Market Growth
	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010
USA Market:
PDA Sales (#M)	0.01	0.12	6.0	6.2	6.8
Smartphone Sales (#M)	-	-	-	4.3	26.4
Handheld PC Sales (#M)	-	-	-	0.01	0.8
Handheld Computer Sales (#M)	0.01	0.12	6.0	10.5	34
Worldwide Market:
PDA Sales (#M)	0.01	0.17	11.4	13.5	16.0
Smartphone Sales (#M)	-	-	0.3	46.6	163.8
Handheld PC Sales (#M)	-	-	-	0.01	2.1
Handheld Computer Sales (#M)	0.01	0.17	11.7	60.1	181.9

The Smartphone emerged in 2000 and sales took off in 2003 and surpassed 46M units in 2005. Smartphone sales will continue to grow and its potential depends on what portion of total cell phone sales will become Smartphones. Cell phone sales reached 795M in 2005 and will top 1B units by 2010.

Handheld PCs are just starting to appear with the OQO being the first product in this category. There are small form factor notebook PCs that have been available for many years, but these products are not included in this category.

Yearly handheld computer sales for the U.S. and the main regions of the world are summarized in the next figure. North America was the largest region until 2003 when Smartphones took off in Europe. Asia-Pacific will become the largest region in 2007 and will jump from 1.8M devices in 2000 to over 71M in 2011. Worldwide handheld computer sales will grow from 11.7M units in 2000 to nearly 210M in 2011. USA handheld computers are projected to increase from nearly 6M units in 2000 to 40M by 2011.

Figure 1.1: Handheld Computer Sales by Region

Handheld computer revenue is growing slower than unit growth due to considerable price declines. The worldwide handheld computer revenue was nearly $4.1B in 2000, which increased to over $23B in 2005. Worldwide handheld computer revenue will reach over $65B in 2011 for a compound annual growth rate of nearly 28% between 2000 and 2011.

1.1 Handheld Computer Sales Summary

This handheld computer forecast consists of three product segments—Smartphones, PDAs and handheld PCs. USA and worldwide sales estimates for these categories are shown in the next table.

Table 2: Handheld Computer Segments
Unit Sales	2000	2003	2005	2006	2008	2010
USA Market: