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New PC Opportunities Are Emerging
Dell and HP has 3X Lead in PC Sales

Updated December 8, 2003 -
PC sales growth have slowed or declined for three years because of three market conditions: PC market maturity, economic slowdown/recession and lack of new PC market opportunities. PC market maturity will remain a factor that limits future growth. The other two factors are changing and will spur future PC growth. Economic growth is required for PC growth, which is now happening in most countries. There are five emerging PC market opportunities that will increase the long-term PC penetration in homes and offices:

  1. Home PC networks. Multi-PC households use PC servers to simplify and lower Internet access cost and to coordinate other PC activities. The home PC server is already established and will grow strongly in the next decade.
  2. Media PCs. Media PCs are focused on multi-media functions such TV, video, music and photos. The Media PC has significant future potential to expand the PC market.
  3. Tablet PCs. Tablet PCs will expand the mobile PC market because some of the mobile workers that could not use PCs now have a product that can enhance their productivity and capabilities. The Tablet PC may also increase the number of multi-PC workers.
  4. Handheld PCs. Technology advances allows PC functionally to be put in smaller packages and eventually handheld PCs will become a viable product segment. Handheld PCs will be attractive to a portion of PDA users due to availability of the PC software base. The market size of handheld PCs could be significant in 10 years.
  5. Infrastructure for mobile device and entertainment device networks. The infrastructure that will be required to develop, store, connect and deliver services to the billions of cell phones and digital media devices is another opportunity for PCs-especially for PC servers.

Each of these opportunity segments will expand the PC market in the next decade. The Media PC has the largest potential because a large portion of household is a candidate for using a Media PC by 2010. Over the next year most PC makers will introduce products in this category and the success of this segment will spread from the USA to the industrialized countries in the next five years.

Dell and HP are currently the leading PC manufacturers and they will remain the top two vendors for many years. The next table shows historical PC sales and future projections of these two companies and the total PC market. Dell and HP sell nearly 3X more PCs than other vendors.

  1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2008
USA PC Sales (#M) 9.54 21.4 46.0 48.3 55-57 62-63
Dell Computer: USA (#M) 0.143 1.15 9.7 15.5 18-20 23-24
HP & Compaq: USA (#M) 0.48 3.87 13.3 10.5 12-13 14-16
WW PC Sales (#M) 24.2 58.0 129.6 149.3 180-182 221-225
Dell Computer: WW (#M) 0.20 1.93 15.1 25.2 31-33 40-43
HP & Compaq: WW (#M) 1.04 8.20 28.0 24.4 27-29 34-37

In the USA, Dell is the clear leader with PC sales nearly 50% higher than HP. Dell has nearly a 6X PC sales lead over third place IBM in the USA.

These are results from a new market research report by eTForecasts. The report explores the markets, technologies, product segments and opportunities for PCs including market estimates for six regions of the world from 1990 to 2008. eTForecasts publishes market research reports for the PC, PDA and Internet industries.

  Updated December 8, 2003