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PC Sales Growth: Slow and Jagged
Future PC Sales Will Be Strongly Impacted by Economic Cycles

Buffalo Grove IL, May 7, 2002-
After 25 years of strong growth, the PC industry has reached maturity and its future growth will be determined by economic conditions. Future PC unit sales growth will remain below 10% and economic recessions will produce PC sales contractions as we saw in 2001. However, the PC industry will see long term growth, but year-to-year growth are no longer certain. PCs-in-use will continue to grow in all regions of the world and will double by 2010 in many regions. PCs-in-use in the USA reached 175M in 2001 and will pass 300M by 2010. Worldwide PCs-in-use surpassed 525M in 2001 and will top 1.1B units in 2007.

Yearly PC Sales (Thousands) 1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2007
Worldwide 24,175 57,985 129,670 133,920 158,790 206,690
North America 10,290 23,030 49,450 46,990 52,570 60,900
USA 9,540 21,370 46,005 43,450 48,980 56,830
Western Europe 8,050 15,870 32,280 32,490 36,890 46,230
Eastern Europe 555 2,180 5,070 6,320 8,050 11,850
Asia-Pacific 3,825 12,635 31,190 35,590 44,620 61,960
South/Central America 765 2,570 6,840 7,360 9,330 14,060
Middle East/Africa 690 1,700 4,850 5,470 7,330 11,690

These are some of the results from a new market research report by eTForecasts. "Annual PC sales is now much more dependent on replacement sales than sales to new customers" says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. "This means that the economic life of the average PC will become the largest factor in determining annual PC unit sales".

In 2007 the PC industry will pass another milestone when worldwide PC sales will surpass 200M units, but this is two year later than was expected in early 2000. W. Europe and N. America have the highest PC adoption rates and consequently will have the slowest growth rates and have the highest risk for PC sales declines during economic downturns.

eTForecasts publishes market research reports for the PC, PDA, information appliances and Internet industries.

  Updated May 7, 2002